Phase 2C of the Primary 1 (P1) Registration Exercise started on Tuesday, 3 August 2021. It is considered by many to be the most competitive phase in the whole exercise.
This phase is opened to all Singapore citizens and permanent residents (PRs) who have not registered or secured a place in a primary school. Compared to the earlier phases, Phase 2C has the highest number of schools requiring a ballot.
Comparing the total number of applicants from Phase 1 to Phase 2B this year with last year, against the number of children born in 2015 and 2014, the proportion of applicants applying before Phase 2C against birth has increased by 1.6ppt. In addition, the proportion of applicants having registered or secured a place in a school before Phase 2C against birth has increased by 1.5ppt. It goes to show that parents are starting to make their move early!
Of the 181 primary schools involved in the exercise this year, 12 schools are left with 20 places each. Last year, 5 schools were in a similar situation. That’s a whooping 140% increase in the number of schools down to their reserved places for Phase 2C. However, if we look at the number of schools with 25 or less places for Phase 2C, i.e. close to their reserved numbers, the numbers are largely unchanged (17 schools in 2020 vs 18 schools in 2021).
Contrasting the number of vacancy in 2021 with 2020, around a third of the schools (56 out of 181) have about the same number of vacancy (between -5 and +5) this year as last year, and the gainers / losers are closed to being evenly distributed. This could be partly attributed to an increase in the total number of places offered by schools this year (despite the lower birth rate). As a result, an increased in the number of applicants before Phase 2C has not resulted in a decrease in vacancies for Phase 2C.
In our opinion, competition in the earlier phases aren’t spread out across all schools and are In our opinion, competition in the earlier phases aren’t spread out across all schools and are concentrated on the same schools as previous years. However, there is a clear move by parents attempting to secure places in an earlier phase, even for, historically, less popular schools. Notwithstanding, with a similar level of vacancy, and fewer unregistered or unsecured applicants compared to 2020, it is possible to avoid balloting if parents are willing to prioritise getting their child into a primary school over getting their child into the most popular school or the nearest school in Phase 2C.
Little Red Dot Data 