Phase 2B: What Happen?

As the dust settles on the recently concluded Phase 2B, we can revisit the projections that we had made about this phase.

Given the current outlook, we believe that the number of schools with more applicants than vacancies in Phase 2B this year will exceed 27.

The Ministry of Education (MOE) said on its website that 16 schools will need to conduct a ballot for children who are Singapore citizens residing within 1km of the school, 3 schools will need to conduct a ballot for citizens living between 1km and 2km of the school and 7 schools will be going to ballot for children living beyond 2km from the school. Henry Park Primary School will not be going to ballot as the school only has places for children of Singapore citizens and Fairfield Methodist School (Primary) only has places for Singapore citizens residing within 1km of the school.

Therefore, the final tally for the numbers of schools with more applicants than vacancies in Phase 2B (28) did exceed our forecast of 27 by 1. This number is up from last year, when 24 schools had more applicants than vacancies in Phase 2B.

Historically, there are about 21 schools that are popular in this phase.

We are not surprised that history has repeated itself. As expected, the first 20 schools listed in the previous table and Nan Hua Primary School have more applicants than vacancies. The other 7 schools that have more applicants than vacancies in Phase 2B this year are Admiralty Primary School, Henry Park Primary School, Kong Hwa School, Maha Bodhi School, Northland Primary School, Singapore Chinese Girls’ Primary School and South View Primary School.

67% of the applicants to these 28 schools have managed to secure a place in this phase, and 33% would have been disappointed. Half or less than half of the applicants to CHIJ St. Nicholas Girls’ School, Holy Innocents’ Primary School, St. Hilda Primary School and Tao Nan School would have been able to secure a place. Given that all 4 schools are balloting within 1km, we wonder how many Singapore citizens living more than 1km away had applied unknowingly of the risks involved. It’s a shame that MOE has not shared with us any detailed breakdown. While Holy Innocents’ Primary School and St. Hilda Primary School have historically been balloting in Phase 2B, it wasn’t always for Singapore citizens within 1km. Hence, there could be a significant number of applicants who may be staying more than 1km away. We think that it’s reasonable for them to try, if they have alternative options in Phase 2C.